Long Bets

All bets are for $1. Neale’s prediction is the one stated.

Los Angeles Population (Blake)

On Feb 24, 2029, the metropolitan area commonly known as “Los Angeles” will have, at most recent measure, double-digit population decrease.

Neale’s Rationale

LA uses a ton of fresh water, brought in from all over the place. As droughts worsen, there will be increasingly large fights over water. Regardless of the political outcome, places closer to fresh water will tend to keep that water. LA is not close to fresh water. Las Vegas is going to have the same problem, but predicting the collapse of Las Vegas didn’t seem as challenging.

This Page (Nemo Thorx)

By 7 December, 2028, Neale will have updated this web page within the last 12 months.

Neale’s Rationale

I actually think Nemo’s right, but this was such an amusing bet, I couldn’t turn it down.

DC Power (Nobody yet!)

By 2030, over ⅓ of US residences currently being built will be wired with a DC power bus.

Neale’s Rationale

When I counted in 2014, we had only 5 electrical devices that used Alternating Current. Everything else ran off a “wall wart”: an AC to DC transformer.

In addition to DC being tremendously safer (it won’t stop Junior’s heart when he sticks a fork in a USB port), it’s also potentially more efficient to have a single transformer for the entire house. As more houses move to solar power with battery storage, the conversion from DC batteries to AC wall power, just to be converted again to DC, will be a tantalizing inefficiency to conquer. And with the introduction in 2015 of USB delivering up to 100W, there will even be a standard to use.